Last Week in Collapse: February 4-10, 2024
Antarctica warms, H5N1 spreads, conflict grows, and our crises continue converging…
Last Week in Collapse: February 4-10, 2024
This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, useful, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.
This is the 111th newsletter. You can find the January 28-February 3 edition here on Reddit if you missed it last week. Thank you for subscribing to the Substack.
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The AMOC is at its weakest point in over 1,000 years, and scientists are afraid the tipping point may be closer than expected. A study in Science Advances claims “no realistic adaptation measures can deal with such rapid temperature changes under an AMOC collapse” and that we are trending towards a dangerous climatic future. However, if I understood this study correctly, it suggests that we have at least 25 years until the AMOC tipping point is finally crossed, and probably 75+ years until the feedback loop becomes dire. But a Collapse of the AMOC could mean a 5-15 °C drop in temperatures in northwest Europe and the disruption of the global climate as we know it.
A recalculation of global temperature increases since pre-industrial times suggests that we are actually already 1.7 °C above our baseline. The Nature Climate Change study measured a certain species of sea sponge, and determined that the oceans began warming in the 1860s. Earth has just finished its first consecutive 12 months of average temperatures hotter than 1.5 °C.
Exxon Mobil will search for oil off the coast of Guyana, in the region contested by Venezuela, despite (or because of?) rising regional tensions and Venezuelan soldiers gathering near the border. An oil ship ran aground near Tobago, spilling oil across 15 km of the island’s coastline. Italian farmers are bracing for Drought.
Iceland’s ongoing volcanic eruption has opened a new fissure and damaged water pipes, leading to a state of emergency being declared in several settlements. Some researchers believe Iceland is entering a new volcanic era, and that these eruptions could last years—potentially even centuries.
Chilean wildfires continue blazing, causing their President to label these the worst disaster to face Chile in 14 years. 15,000+ homes have been damaged and 131+ people killed. Scientists are saying that we should designate a Category 6 Hurricane rating for super-strong storms. Category 5 storms begin with winds of 157 mph (252 kph) but do not have a cap. In the last 12 years, scientists have measured six storms exceeding 193 mph (309 kph).
A Nature Water study found that warmer conditions in the United States actually made the soil more moist during summer. One scientist concluded “it's virtually impossible to predict soil moisture in the coming decades.” A study of microplastics in soil is sounding the alarm about the damage to the ecosystem caused through the breakdown of microplastics and how they will chemically impact soil health.
Analysis of Antarctic sea ice predicts that record lows seen in 2023 will not be broken this season, although the quantity will remain low. Yet another study says that part of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin in Antarctica—at 1,400 km long and 400 km wide, the Basin is 90% the size of Greenland—is closer to runaway melting. It contains enough ice to raise sea levels 10 feet (3 meters) when totally melted. (Some sources claim the Basin is the size of California but Wikipedia’s listen dimensions are much closer to Greenland’s size.)
In the U.S., 2024 is a year of big climate lawsuits, though analysts aren’t sure how they will all be decided. Monarch butterfly populations in Mexico fell by 59% over the last 12 months. A landslide in Georgia killed 4; a landslide in the Philippines killed 7.
Record temperatures across Africa, too many to individually name. Bolivia set a new February record, as did several Pacific island nations. South Africa and Dar Es Salaam set new night temperatures as well. The sea surface temperature is still setting new records, and a number of Caribbean nations set new records for February too.
This great flow chart grappling with climate change and Collapse may be worth your time. The new Secretary-General of the WMO said global warming is accelerating.
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Dengue fever cases quadrupled in Brazil since last year, killing 40+ and forcing Brazil to conduct a mass vaccination campaign. Ecuador decriminalized euthanasia. The Fentanyl emergency is causing a continual stream of deaths on both sides of the U.S./Mexico border.
The complex emergency in Sudan (pop: 48M) is still becoming more complex—and more of an emergency. Cholera, measles, malaria, and hunger are rising, the internet was shut down in some places, and access to healthcare and clean water has become severely limited. The number of displaced has risen to 7.9M according to most estimates—by one count, almost 11M. A ship capsized off the coast of Tunisia, carrying at least 40 Sudanese people. China is cozying up to the Taliban with the hopes of securing some of Afghanistan’s minerals.
An experiment with nuclear fusion—a theoretically limitless & clean potential future power source–has come closer than ever before, according to a UK science institution. More research is shedding light on COVID and brain damage. Research into Long COVID is still being done—will we ever unlock a cure for this debilitating condition?
Ghana’s population has almost tripled in the last 30 years, resulting in haphazard development poisoning rivers and damaging wetlands. In the United States, 10% of premature births are linked to plastics](https://phys.org/news/2024-02-premature-births-linked-plastic-chemicals.html). We are beginning the “enshittification” of everything.
Although on paper the American economy may look strong, homelessness is at record levels—and that’s just the homelessness that we can quantify. And the price of servicing U.S. debt is ticking up. Germany is seeing a drop in commercial real estate, while China’s mammoth real estate market is trembling.
H5N1—bird flu—has infected another human in Cambodia, and spread to birds in Laos. Birds in Massachusets and in the capital of Niger have also been reported to have the disease. Chickens in Japan and in Czechia were culled over fears of spreading H5N1, and dead geese in Ontario tested positive for avian flu as well.
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The Five Eyes Network—a security partnership between the UK, U.S., Canada, New Zealand, and Australia—is warning about Volt Typhoon, a mysterious cyber-sabotage state network of Chinese hackers who have allegedly been probing, hacking, laying digital mines, and exploring IT vulnerabilities in mostly American infrastructure. The U.S. is less than 9 months away from its consequential election, and the Supreme Court appears unwilling to support blocking Trump’s ballot access over his actions on & before January 6th.
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