Last Week in Collapse: June 16-22, 2024
Summer 2024 has begun—and we are not ready. Disasters, heat waves, record energy demand, and the uncontrolled demolition of Ukraine, Gaza, & Sudan.
Last Week in Collapse: June 16-22, 2024
This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, useful, soul-crushing, ironic, stunning, exhausting, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.
This is the 130th newsletter, marking the two-and-a-half year anniversary of this newsletter. You can find the June 9-15 edition here if you missed it last week. Thank you for subscribing to the Substack.
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The head of the UN World Food Programme claimed 40% of the world’s land is degraded—a figure that could jump to 95% by mid-century. A growing fraction of the world’s land—and population—is therefore dependent on food imports; see Morocco. And with worsening agricultural harvests, drought, and supply difficulties, feeding these people will not be easy. Roughly 100M hectares of land are desertified or degraded every year—equivalent to…well, a lot. Borneo is just under 75M hectares, and Wikipedia lists it as the 3rd largest non-continental island.
A 6.3 earthquake struck 25km off Peru, in the ocean—causing no damage. Flodding in Assam affected 105,000+ people. In southern China, flooding damaged thousands of homes, 8,000+ hectares of crops, and killed at least 12 people. The city of Guilin saw 30+ cm of rain in 6 hours—its largest flood on record. Drought, poverty, and land degradation in Nigeria continue.
At least 2 people died from heatstroke in Cyprus, following a Mediterranean heat wave. A heat wave struck southern Russia, bringing temperatures as high as 39 °C in some places. A wildfire in LA is growing, forcing the evacuation of 1,200+ residents. A recent study in European Geosciences Union confirms the obvious: large wildfires create hotter & drier temperatures by trapping soot in the air, which contributes to a feedback loop that makes future wildfires in the region more likely.
Worldwide, this June will probably be the hottest June on record—perhaps exceeding last year by 0.2 °C. One scientist indicated that June 13, 2024, was the all-time hottest day on earth since records began. Observers are forecasting the Paris Olympics to be the hottest ever Olympic Games. Yet in Australia, winter has begun as one of the coldest starts of winter in decades.
A heat wave hit Taiwan, and Japan is expecting its hottest summer ever. South Korea felt its hottest June day of all time—37.7 °C (100 °F). A heat wave also struck Brazil. A storm in Chile forced 11,000 to leave their homes, and also killed one person. A landslide in Ecuador killed 8+, with 11 still missing. Several also died in Guatemala & El Salvador from damage caused by excessive rainfall. Extreme weather is upon us, and there is nothing you can do to change it.
Over 1,050 pilgrims have died from heat waves during this year’s Hajj. Temperatures reached as high as 51.8 °C (125 °F) in Mecca. Extreme heat also hit Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran, plus their groundwater reserves are being depleted. Across Central Asia, composed mostly of deserts, sandstorms are becoming more common as the Aral Sea disappears; these dust/sandsotrms also aggravate glacial melt in the Causauses and the Altai Mountains. Around 1,700 wildfires have been identified across Brazil’s tropical wetlands, before the dry season has even begun. At least 125 people in Mexico have died from heat stroke this year.
India has logged 40,000+ {suspected} heat stroke cases already, and 100+ deaths. Meanwhile, near the India/Bangladesh border, landslides killed 15 people. The American state of Maine experienced its hottest June day, as did some places in Atlantic Canada.
An interesting study in American Meteorology Society looked at the Andes Mountains, and concluded that greenhouse gas emissions may actually reduce the likelihood of Drought—although increased aerosols increase the chance of Drought. This tracks with earlier reports that say 2023 was a wetter-than-average year, despite many regions experiencing Megadrought.
Italy rerouted tourist ferries away from Capri because the town, undergoing a desperate water shortage, could not accommodate the tourists’ water demand. Heat stroke and its symptoms is becoming more common. Drought has damaged crops in central China.
A study in Science Advances looked at the effect on surface air temperatures caused by cloud coverage. Clouds warm the earth at night by trapping radiation, yet cool the earth during the daytime by reflecting sunlight back. Long-term, on a global scale, there tends to be greater cloud coverage at night than during the day, meaning that the cloud coverage “asymmetry, therefore, turns out to be an amplifier of surface warming, by both decreasing the daytime cloud shortwave albedo effect and increasing the nighttime cloud longwave greenhouse effect.”
An interesting website from the University of Maryland’s Center for Environmental Science allows you to search any of 40,000+ places on a map and check the climate forecast for the year 2080. Their database is based on predictions made by the IPCC, and does not account for all possible climate factors (like an early breakdown of the AMOC). You can also customize your settings to measure for an optimistic reduced emissions future, and also see an average of 5 forecasts. Some scholars disagree with the methodology used by the IPCC to forecast future climate conditions.
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A study in Science Direct examined the economic costs of Aedes mosquitoes carrying “Dengue, Zika and chikungunya,” among other viruses. The scientists believe the economic cost is underestimated—and projected to worsen. The cost of treating the sick is far more than the cost of managing the spread of mosquitoes/virus—but budgeting for prevention requires long-term thinking and acting responsibly, which are not common traits among homo sapiens.
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Rising heat is overburdening India’s electrical grids, especially as air conditioners are made more widely available. “Power consumption in the northern state of Punjab has increased by 43% so far this month compared with the same period last year.” Another major growing powersuck, AI, has propelled Nvidia to become the “most valuable company” in the world. The AI demand is still only beginning.
The 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy report came out a few days ago, and its 76 pages cover energy developments & consumption in the year 2023. It reports a still-rapidly industrializing China, producing & consuming coal, wind, solar, LNG, and oil. China has also exceeded the U.S. in its capacity to refine oil for the first time. The Global South, which consumes about 56% of the world’s energy, is seeing its overall demand grow at twice the rate of developed countries. The report also contains some amazing data tables detailing the various energy production for about 60 countries year-by-year from 2013-2023—and regional energy summaries.
“Total primary energy consumption increased by 2% over its 2022 level, 0.6% above its ten-year average and over 5% above its 2019 pre-COVID level….consumption of crude oil broke through the 100 million barrels per day level for the first time ever and coal demand beat the previous year’s record level….whilst North America witnessed a modest increase in oil consumption of around 0.8%, demand in Europe fell by nearly 1% to 13.9 million barrels per day. By contrast, the Asia Pacific region saw an increase of over 5% to 38 million barrels per day….Global {liquified natural} gas production remained relatively constant compared to 2022…. The US remains the largest producer of gas delivering around a quarter of the world’s supply….Global coal production reached its highest ever level (179 exajoules), beating the previous high set the year before. The Asia Pacific region accounted for nearly 80% of global output with activity concentrated in just four countries, Australia, China, India, and Indonesia….coal retained its position as the dominant fuel for power generation in 2023 with a stable share around 35%....Wind achieved a record year for new build with over 115 GW coming online. Nearly 66% of capacity additions were in China and its total installed capacity is now equal to North America and Europe combined. Solar accounted for 75% (346 GW) of the capacity additions with China responsible for around a quarter of the growth.” -excerpts from the key highlights
The New York Governor is considering a mask ban on NYC subways and at protests, following backlash to pro-Palestinian protestors. Ohio is also considering similar policies—although mask mandates were necessary in some of these places less than 2 years ago. Some think COVID is gone for good—and bird flu may be next. Nevertheless, Long COVID persists for people of all ages. Symptoms of Long COVID include, but are not limited to: “shortness of breath, cough, persistent fatigue, post-exertional malaise, difficulty concentrating, memory changes, recurring headache, lightheadedness, fast heart rate, sleep disturbance, problems with taste or smell, bloating, constipation, and diarrhea.”
Two South Africans died from mpox, formerly monkeypox. At least 5 others were confirmed to have been infected. There have now been, since January 2022, over 97,000 confirmed cases of mpox worldwide, with 186 known deaths—according to a 19-page WHO report. That would suggest a CFR of less than 0.2%.
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