Last Week in Collapse: June 2-8, 2024
The heat and the pressure are on—for our planet, and for one more World War.
Last Week in Collapse: June 2-8, 2024
This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, useful, soul-crushing, ironic, stunning, exhausting, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.
This is the 128th newsletter. You can find the May 26-June edition here on Reddit if you missed it last week. Thank you for subscribing to the Substack.
——————————
Bengaluru broke a 133-year rain record by almost 10mm last Sunday, with 111mm (4.37 inches) of rain falling in a single day. In Sri Lanka, some 24,000 people were displaced by recent flooding. A heat wave swept through the southwest United States and northern Mexico. Part of Niger already broke its June temperature record. Parts of New South Wales, Australia broke nighttime temperatures as well; so did the Philippines, and Vietnam. And a heat wave in Greece.
“Atmospheric blocking” happens when regions of the atmosphere remain stationary for days or weeks, imposing similar weather on a region for a while. A study released in Nature Communications looked at Svalbard, which is warming faster than the Arctic, which is itself warming faster than most of the rest of the planet. The researchers claim that atmospheric blocking has resulted in warmer & wetter conditions in Svalbard, which is driving its ice loss. “The augmented blocking in the Ural and Scandinavian regions in the future combined with the projected declines in sea ice, and increases in sea surface temperatures and moisture availability, will likely increase the magnitude and frequency of exceptional rainfall incidents similar to the 2016 occurrence, posing further hazards to the population and ecosystems in Svalbard.”
A paywalled study in Nature Climate Change emphasizes “in the absence of a global tipping point there is no safety margin within which permafrost loss would be acceptable.” The summary states that permafrost melt does not have a worldwide tipping point, but rather several local temperature thresholds. Permafrost worldwide is expected to be all melted once global temperature gains hit 5 or 6 °C.
We are currently in the brief neutral period between El Niño and La Niña, expected to begin around August. Meteorologists expect temperatures in the eastern Pacific to decline for between 1 and 3 years—and for stronger Atlantic hurricanes. A 14-page report from the WMO forecasts a particularly wet summer for Central America.
Monsoon storms in Sri Lanka killed 14, mostly by falling trees, though others drowned or were covered by landslides. Texas saw “canteloupe-size hail” fall during a freak tornado; some think it is a record size for the region. Experts say some 23% of Africa’s land has been degraded, by five major factors: 1) invasive species, 2) climate change, including Drought and flooding, 3) resource extraction, 4) deforestation, and 5) pollution, including algal blooms. Poverty, population growth, and resource dependencies have aggravated the problem, says the article.
In Kashmir, a glacier Collapsed, sending three plunging into the ice, one of whom has still not been found. In the Philippines, a volcanic mud landslide swept into a village; volcano alerts were raised to 2 (on a 0-5 scale). Rising sea levels are displacing residents of one of Panama’s islands (pop: ~1,200); others will follow. Greece is gearing up for a fierce wildfire season ahead. And, in a moment of hopeful news, Sweden is banning bottom trawling in its “marine protected areas.”
In the EU, early polling appears to show a “greenlash,”, a backlash to the Green Alliance—and perhaps a loss of some 30% of their 72 current seats in the EU Parliament (705 total). Some blame the “moral superiority complex” of Greens, while others believe it is their lack of compromise on important issues. Farmer protests also damaged Green sentiment; now future sweeping climate reforms will probably have to wait years to get passed, since conservatives are expected to make gains. Most results will emerge within 24 hours of this post.
Worldwide, 39% of environmental journalists have faced threats due to their reporting—according to a 112-page report by the Earth Journalism Network. Most of the threats came to reporters writing about illegal extraction operations.
Roughly 20% of sealife near the surface is expected to face a “triple threat” of climate hazards: extreme heat, oxygen loss and acidification. Some of these species will die in place; others will be forced into progressively smaller living spaces. Most of the danger lies in the northern Pacific. The full study in AGU Advances has more.
The UN Secretary-General announced that we are on the “highway to climate hell.” And we aren’t wearing any seatbelts. The EU Copernicus Programme says last May was the hottest on record. This means the last 12 months were the hottest on record, with each consecutive month setting a new monthly record. Our planet is supposedly on the edge of 1.5 °C temperature increase, but some think we’ve already surpassed it.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a 27-page report, “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2024-2028,” predicting short-term temperatures exceeding the 1.5 °C mark.
“The global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900. It is likely (80% chance) that global mean near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2024 and 2028. It is about as likely as not (47%) that the five-year mean will exceed this threshold….Arctic warming over the next five extended winters (November to March), relative to the average of the 1991-2020 period, is predicted to be more than three times as large as the warming in global mean temperature. Predicted precipitation patterns for 2024, relative to the 1991-2020 average, suggest an increased chance of low rainfall over North-East Brazil and an increased chance of wet conditions in the African Sahel, consistent with the warmer-than-usual temperatures in the North Atlantic….
The Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy released its 2024 Environmental Policy Index, and the 204 pages illustrate the state of sustainability in 180 countries, according to 58 indicators. The document, full of useful graphics and accessible summaries, presents a world in escalating danger of global heating, pollution, and biodiversity loss. It is well worth skimming. These kinds of climate reports usually seem to me like, overall, much more time was spent making them than people spend reading them…
“Only five countries — Estonia, Finland, Greece, Timor-Leste, and the United Kingdom — cut their GHG emissions at the rate needed to reach zero by 2050….After climate change, biodiversity loss has emerged as the most serious and irreversible environmental crisis….As of 2022, aggregated GHG emissions were falling in 60 countries but still rising in 128…. Human activities, namely the combustion of fossil fuels, of which CO2 is an inevitable byproduct, have caused a nearly 50 percent of the increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution, with atmospheric concentration surpassing 426 parts per million in April 2024 — a level higher than at any point in human history….China, the United States, and India are pivotal, accounting for over half of global GHG emissions…China used more cement in two years (2020 and 2021) than the United States did in the entire twentieth century….Air pollution remains the most serious environmental threat to public health. Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) caused 7.8 million premature deaths in 2021, close to 12 percent of global deaths…” -selections from the first third of the report
——————————
Mexico saw its first human case of a bird flu strain, H5N2, in a dead man supposedly with no known previous exposure to animals. Two turkey farms got outbreaks in Minnesota, and Iowa’s first dairy farm reported bird flu as well. American health authorities expect H5N1 human cases to rise in the coming weeks. Bird flu was also found in San Francisco last week. Millions of human vaccine doses for bird flu are being prepared for the United States this summer.
Citigroup says the United States is already in a recession, though other institutions disagree. Nevertheless, junk bonds are becoming even more junky, and economists agree that the economy is at least slowing down. Credit card debt is reportedly rising, and the “personal savings rate” has dropped to pre-COVID levels. “America’s debt accumulation over the last seven years is akin to the costs of a world war,” says the article. Cuts to the Federal Reserve interest rate are coming, and the rise of tariffs is unlikely to stop soon. And Europe’s strongest economy, Germany, is not seeing a strong recovery from last year’s recession.
Thousands are starving in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, where Drought and school dropouts have also worsened. Investigators claim in a new report that both sides in the Tigray War committed grave war crimes and “acts of genocide” in the conflict, which ended (on paper, anyway) in November 2022; intercommunal violence continues at a lower intensity.
The American Heart Association released a report projecting the rates of heart illnesses by 2050, and they believe the rate of hypertension among adults will rise from about 51% in 2020 to 61% in 2060. Diabetes rates are expected to jump from about 16% in 2020 to almost 27% in 2050; and obesity rates will expand 17% to over 60%... A number of other heart conditions are expected to worsen as well, though at least high cholesterol rates are expected to decrease.
A 12-page report by Oil Change International says what we all know: most nations are failing to meet climate targets. “Some G7 countries are massively expanding fossil fuel production at home, while others are investing in more fossil fuel infrastructure abroad.” China is, far and away, adding more renewable energy capacity than any other nations on earth, supposedly adding “over 90% of all renewable capacity mentioned in NDCs {nationally determined contributions}” in the 2020s so far.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Last Week in Collapse to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.