Last Week in Collapse: April 28-May 4, 2024

A disaster looms in Sudan… H5N1 expands more… and lots of flooding.

Last Week in Collapse: April 28-May 4, 2024

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, useful, soul-crushing, ironic, stunning, exhausting, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 123rd newsletter. You can find the April 21-27 edition here if you missed it last week. Thank you for subscribing to the Substack.

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A study in Science of the Total Environment examined the impact of palm oil plantations in Indonesia. It found that “establishing oil palm plantations increased surface runoff by 21%, and sediment yields rose by 16.9% compared to the baseline. There was also a significant increase of 78% in mean annual total nitrogen and 144% in total phosphorous.” A look into an Indonesian watershed roughly the size of Sweden’s Gotland island, or France’s Réunion island, found about 25% of the watershed had been transformed into a palm oil plantation. Regional water quality has plunged, rainfall has increased, runoff has risen, and the soil is moister than ever before.

Other forests saw gradual aridification. A recent study in Geophysical Research Letters examined forests in West Africa, where wildfires doubled over the last 18 years. Scientists blame deforestation and changing weather patterns, mostly.

Worsening air pollution is impacting the tourism industry in Nepal, and impacting the population’s health. Bangladesh ended its hottest April since records began 76 years ago. Western Australia is enduring a vicious 7-month Drought. The death toll from flooding in Kenya is now at at least 188, with 90 missing and 160,000+ displaced. About 50 were killed when a dam broke about 30km outside Nairobi. At least 155 have also died in Tanzania from flooding—and the approach of Cyclone Hidaya is expected to cause more deaths & damage.

The location of the burst dam.

A study published last week in Earth’s Future determined that tropical hurricanes and cyclones will get wetter, intensify faster, and cause more damage when they make landfall. At a conference of earthquake scientists last week, they discussed the potential for dangerous lake tsunamis triggered by future climate-induced landslides into mountain lakes.

In other mountain regions, like Kashmir, Drought is encroaching as ancient glaciers disappear. In fact, much of India is experiencing terrible Drought and heat.

Manila hit its all-time hottest air temperature ever—38.8 °C (102 °F). Myanmar and Lao felt their hottest night ever, as did a number of Asian capitals. Japan also ended its warmest April on record. Flooding in Saudi Arabia.

China experienced 35+ cm hail (14+ inches), and part of Hainan saw its hottest day of all time, 42.8 °C (109 °F). Scientists are worried about the upcoming normalization of heat-caused dieoffs in marine environments.

Flooding caused the Collapse of part of a highway in China, killing 48+ people. Tornadoes across Midwest America killed several, laying waste across several states. Some regions of the U.S. are seeing insurers pull out or raise premiums beyond affordable limits, due to a changing risk environment—mostly around wildfires & flooding. Like many nations, Greece is bracing for a record fire season ahead.

Hundreds of thousands of fish, perhaps millions, died off in a Vietnamese reservoir blasted by a heat wave which turned parts of the reservoir into mud. In the ocean, temperature fluctuations are increasingly responsible for mass mortality events.

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Farmers in the UK are warning of upcoming food shortages, mostly as a result of the devastating flooding which impacted the Isles. Couple that with the news that about 20% of major UK companies issued a profit warning in the last 12 months, and the nation is facing tough economic waters ahead. Global cocoa prices continue to surge, and the futures market for this tight commodity is growing more volatile.

Experts are concerned that vaping is increasing lead poisoning. A study in Science Direct examined the inhalation of nano- and microplastics (from sources like shirts, toothbrushes, and water bottles), and found that they “amplify human susceptibility to a spectrum of lung disorders, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, fibrosis, dyspnea, asthma, and the formation of frosted glass nodules.” Nanoparticles, like non-plastic particles from consumer sprays, are also affecting respiratory health.

A 20-year survey of pollution in the Great Lakes showed that 86% of the Lakes’ annual litter is made of plastic. “Plastic is not disappearing—it's just getting smaller and smaller,” said one of the study’s authors. A study into plastic pollution determined that, predictably, a 1% increase in plastics production also results in a 1% increase in plastics pollution—bad news for the planet, considering that plastic is expected to account for 15% of carbon emissions by 2040. Some researchers are warning of potential PFAS contamination from seafood-heavy diets.

The U.S. FDA announced the results from a new study on HPAI (bird flu / H5N1) in milk: no active, infectious virus particles were detected in pasteurized milk, although trace amounts of harmless virus were detected in a range of dairy products. However, 24 cats died at a Texas dairy farm, presumably from contracting H5N1 in raw milk they consumed. It’s also been confirmed now that the March infection of a human from that Texas farm was the first known mammal-to-human transmission of bird flu. Panic is unfolding gradually—and then suddenly.

Nine states have detected H5N1 in their cattle, with Colorado starting last week. Some epidemiologists think there must be more human cases out there, considering all the positive animals… A sample of 30 ground beef samples found them all clean of H5N1. The first walrus died of bird flu last week, on one of Norway’s northern islands.

Scabies outbreak in Idlib, Syria. Dengue fever in Brazil has infected 4M so far this year—and killed 2,000+. A case of Lassa Fever—rarely found outside West Africa—was reported in France. High temperatures are also linked with cardiovascular deaths.

Scientists continue to warn about the potential for zoonotic spillovers to bring diseases to humans, like Alaskapox. But there are also viruses going the other way, like the common cold—which presents a much more serious threat to chimpanzees.

In a moment of good news, hospitalizations for COVID are at all-time lows in the U.S. since the start of the pandemic. And a study confirmed that vaccine-boosted people are at 25% lower risk of Long COVID. Bad news: a new variant, codenamed FLiRT, or KP.2, is catching on, and has proven more immuno-evasive than the previously dominant strain, JN.1.

Another fuel shortage in Nigeria. Experts also believe NYC will experience more blackouts because of climate change in the future.

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Two cargo freighters were struck last week by Houthi rebels, including an oil tanker hit last Sunday. The ships which reroute around the tip of Africa, which add another 7-14 days of travel, have emitted a total of the equivalent about 9M cars’ worth of CO2 emissions over the past 4 months. The potential expansion of Houthi strikes to ships in the Indian Ocean also threaten global economic stability.