Last Week in Collapse: June 22-28, 2025
Coming extinctions, heat waves, food scarcity, War preparations, and cracks in the economy. “Hell is empty and all the devils are here.”
Last Week in Collapse: June 22-28, 2025
This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, useful, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.
This is the 183rd weekly newsletter. You can find the overlong June 15-21, 2025 edition here on Reddit if you missed it last week. Thank you for subscribing to the Substack—and a warm welcome to the new subscribers. Ordinarily these newsletters are posted for free every week on Reddit, with the Substack versions (which include images) usually paywalled about halfway through. But for the past two weeks, and the next week, the Substack version is provided in its entirety for all subscribers, as a welcome to those who found the subreddit or this newsletter from the recent article in The Guardian.
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A study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution on bird extinction found that “global actions—such as the immediate abatement of all threats across at least half of species ranges for ~10,000 bird species—will only prevent half of the projected species extinctions and functional diversity loss attributable to current and future threats in the next 100 years.” In other words, extinction of many species is baked in—but there are still preventive measures that can be taken to spare some species. “Habitat loss and degradation” through human expansion was the top extinction threat to avian species. The authors conclude, “in the next 100 years, we will lose more than three times the number of bird species as have been lost since 1500.”
About one third of Tuvalu’s population (pop: 11,585) is reportedly entering a lottery for an Australian visa offered to Tuvaluans as their state is slowly swallowed by the ocean. Meanwhile, the Mediterranean Sea hit new all-time highs for this time of year—”one of the largest marine anomalies on the planet.”
Momentum is moving against the EU’s “Green Deal”, as the European Commission (the EU’s executive branch) has sought to weaken deforestation prohibitions, loosen pollution rules for auto-makers, and undo other work made on sustainability, among other concessions. Meanwhile, China’s skyrocketing solar/wind power installations, in just the first 5 months of the year, have added a capacity of 198 GW (and 46 GW of wind power), equivalent to all of Türkiye’s annual energy production.
Doom for all. R/Collapse (and yours truly) has been featured in The Guardian last week. The respectful & evenhanded article includes a short round-up of potential and already-happening doom scenarios, philosophies of Collapse as presented by our sage moderators, and some excerpts of an interview I gave with the author, Sam Wolfson. It may be in the public interest to publish my full responses, for added context, my missing book recommendations, etc. Read the subreddit’s comments on the article here, if you are interested.
Relatedly, a trio of expert interviews on tipping points was also published in The Guardian last week. The first engages with a climate communicator on cataclysmic risk management, capitalism, motivation, and her typology of doomerism. (Type 1: “thinking we’re absolutely on the path to collapse within 20 or 30 years, no matter what we do.” Type 2: “a kind of nihilistic position taken by people who suggest they are the only ones who can look at the harsh truth.” Type 3: “doomerism that comes from political frustration, from believing that people who have power are just happy to burn the world down.”)
The second interview, with a marine ecologist, discusses the probable Collapse of coral reefs across the planet and the attendant consequences. The third interview discusses the future of the Amazon rainforest with an early theorist of the Amazon’s tipping point & Collapse. He predicts “a tipping point could be reached if deforestation reaches 20-25% or global heating rises to 2.0-2.5C” and discusses the 20% reduction in rain in recent years, the risks of livestock grazing, criminal activity, the savannahfication of the rainforest, and the failure to address these complex problems with the necessary urgency.
A brutal heat wave is coming to Spain & Portugal, with temperatures expected to reach around 44 °C (111 °F). The Netherlands is approaching its driest year on record; if it fails to break 1976’s record, it will ‘only’ be the country’s second or third worst Drought. Meanwhile, flooding in Surat (pop: 8.6M) in India dropped 33cm of rain (13 inches) in 24 hours. A heat wave in Athens brought temperatures of 40°C (104°F), with no clouds.
Experts continue sounding the alarm about glacier mass loss in Europe and Asia and elsewhere. President Trump is rescinding the so-called “Roadless Rule” which protects 58.5M acres of national forest land across the country, about a quarter of which is in Alaska. The total land losing its protection (c. 237,000 sq km) is roughly equivalent to the size of Ireland, Hokkaido, and Hispaniola—combined.
A growing fire on Chios, Greece (suspected to have been caused intentionally ) ravages the island. A study from last week indicates that wildfires can cause “multi-year water quality degradation” in affected watershed/drainage basins, up to eight years for some chemicals. Temperatures on the U.S. East Coast hit 100 °F (37.8 °C) in Philadelphia, 99 °F in NYC, and 103 °F in Newark, NJ. Flooding in southwest China forced the evacuation of 80,000+ people.
A study on glacier mass loss in North America and Switzerland from 2021-2024 found that “glaciers in both regions experienced a doubling of melt rates compared to the previous decade. Glaciers lost 12% (WCAN-US) and 13% (Switzerland) of their total 2020 volume over this four-year period. Conditions that favored strong mass loss included warm dry conditions and surface darkening of snow and ice.” To repeat: in the course of 4 years, the glaciers studied lost ⅛ of their volume. Why are we still talking about 1.5 °C?
An article in Nature proposes a new way of measuring human relationships with our planet: the Nature Relationship Index (NRI). This new metric method focuses “on measuring the progress of nations towards delivering mutually beneficial relationships among people and the rest of the living world in terms that people widely understand and value…..The NRI aims to expand the aspirational space of human development to include healthy societal relationships with nature.” The Human Development Index (HDI), which the authors base the NRI on, measures health, education, standards of living, and other social/economic progress—but does not quantify ecological protection or conservation. The article authors hope to launch the NRI in 2026.
A brief report was published last week on fires across Brazil. Some outlets reported an almost unbelievable statistic: that 300,000 sq km of the Amazon were ravaged by wildfires last year—equivalent to the size of Finland, or Italy. The area of Amazon burnt is 117% more than the historical average, and largely a result of devastating Drought in the region. You can access some Fire Monitor Data here if interested.
“Alongside the Amazon, which broke a record for forest fires in 2024, and the Atlantic Forest, which had the largest area affected by fire in the last four decades, the Pantanal stands out: 62% of its territory burned at least once in the period mapped….three out of every four hectares (72%) have burned twice or more in the last four decades…..The {Amazon} biome recorded approximately 15.6 million hectares burned, a value 117% higher than its historical average. This area corresponded to 52% of the entire national area affected by fire in 2024….‘The combination of highly flammable vegetation, low humidity and the use of fire created the perfect conditions for its propagation on a large scale, leading to a historic record of burned area in the region’....” -selections from the report, translated from Portuguese into English using Google Translate
Phytoplankton, which sequester atmospheric carbon and move it to the seafloor, are experiencing a roughly 1.5% decrease in biomass, per year, in much of the North Atlantic, according to a study from earlier this month. Britain braces for the upcoming Monday temperatures, expected to be the hottest of the year (35 °C, or 95 °F)—so far.
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Experts believe 400M people may be living with Long COVID worldwide, including about 5% of Americans. “We are still in the COVID 19 pandemic,” said one professor. Ireland is ending support to healthcare workers who got Long COVID in the line of duty. New research suggests that balneotherapy—soaking in mineral-rich water—may be a useful treatment for the fatigue and aches caused by Long COVID. Some of those with brain fog are turning to nicotine patches or gum to stimulate their minds.
Climate change is worsening a dengue outbreak on the Bangladesh coast, by increasing water stagnation & pollution. At a couple New Jersey graduations, extreme heat caused two mass casualty events; none died.
Wales reported its first bird flu cases in 2+ years, found at two sites with farmed birds. A number of countries have agreed that Brazil’s bird flu outbreak is over, and resumed meat imports. Ahead of a wide-ranging overhaul of parts of the UK’s NHS, 150+ sub-organizations and oversight bodies are being eliminated.
Food shortages across the world remain serious, according to a 25-page report published last week. The document, which focuses on the Middle East, Africa, and part of latin America, is a summary of current situations and also projections for a number of countries over the next three months.
“Food assistance needs remain most critical in Sudan, where extreme hunger and high levels of malnutrition and mortality are likely ongoing in areas of North Darfur and Khartoum. A rapidly escalating cholera outbreak, which is heavily concentrated in Khartoum, is expected to further accelerate levels of mortality….insecurity and drought are limiting household access to food, and for internally displaced and refugee populations in Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, and Burundi…..In the Middle East and Afghanistan, food assistance needs remain high across the region. The scale and severity of need is most extreme in Gaza….In West Africa, conflict and insecurity, coupled with localized weather shocks, are expected to drive increased food assistance needs during the Sahel’s lean season from June to September. Violent extremist organizations continue to expand territorial control….acute food insecurity is expected to worsen in Haiti, Central America’s Dry Corridor, and Venezuela…” -excerpts from the report
Experts say food packaging & processed food are the primary delivery mechanisms of microplastics to our bodies. Metal caps on glass bottles shed nanoplastics into drinks, plastic plates and cups let loose nanoplastics when washed, and processed food offers more opportunities for contaminants in its preparation. Even the remote caves of Crete, where no humans have tread, have become a repository of microplastics suspended in water. They are everywhere, and their impact is being made everywhere, even if it is not yet felt.
Foreign investors continue gradually selling USD-denominated equities for fear of the U.S. Dollar weakening. U.S. Republicans are pushing for tax breaks for private lenders in a massive forthcoming budget bill—the idea is for some dividends paid to investors in private funds to become tax-free—which is projected to increase national debt by another $2.4T by 2034. JP Morgan is warning of tariff-caused stagflation, and estimates a 30% chance of the U.S. falling into recession later this year. Other economics professionals warn about stagflation as well, and estimate rising U.S. unemployment at least through the end of 2026. Some experts also warn about the dangers of climate risks triggering a global financial disaster.
Germany’s recent decision to drop its debt-brake has opened the path to much more borrowing, more spending, and more debt. Over the next five years, their national debt is forecast to increase from €1.6T to €2.5, a 56% increase. Much of the new spending will go towards defense, infrastructure, renewable energy, railroads, and energy subsidies.
British automobile production hit 76-year lows last month (excluding COVID figures). American tariffs on China cut profit from factories by over 9% in May, according to reports. Clothing prices are rising in the U.S. amid ongoing trade disputes, and U.S.-Canada trade talks broke down last week, with new tariffs expected next week. The Turkish economy meanwhile remains troubled: small business bankruptcies have doubled since last year, domestic politics have eroded faith in the government, and its textile industry is struggling.
A 14-page teaser report was published by the WWF last week highlighting the interconnectedness between (fresh) water and economic risks. The full report will be released sometime later this year.
“Over the past two decades, 90% of all disasters are linked to weather-related events, affecting water-related issues such as flooding, pollution, droughts, and aridification….In the past decade, 83% of global flood-related economic losses were uninsured….around 4 billion people, or about half of the global population, experience severe water scarcity for at least some of the year….Droughts have hindered hydroelectric energy production….Dry spells have also increased the volatility of agricultural commodity prices….Nutrient overload from untreated urban wastewater and agriculture, as well as contaminants such as microplastics and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) from industrial sources, are systematically polluting freshwater sources….the costs associated with treating polluted water are rising continuously….35% of global wetlands have disappeared between 1970–2015….population growth, urbanization, increasing demands for food and energy, and geopolitical uncertainty are placing additional stress on an already precarious water security trajectory…..The undervaluation of water-related risks presents systemic risks to both the economy and the financial system….water scarcity puts 15% of the Euro area’s output at risk…” -excerpts from the pre-report
The 30-page State of the Climate Report for Asia was published last week by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It paints a picture of a continent warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet (on average), breaking atmospheric and maritime temperature records at breakneck pace, melting glaciers, and heading into uncharted climatic territory. However, the report mostly ends in 2024 (some data go into April 2025), so at time of publication some of its findings may already have been broken by 2025 extremes.
“The global annual mean near-surface temperature in 2024 was 1.55 °C [1.42 °C to 1.68 °C] above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average and 1.19 °C [1.15 °C to 1.24 °C] above the 1961–1990 baseline. The global mean temperature in 2024 was the highest on record for the period 1850–2024…Asia is currently warming nearly twice as fast as the global average….Reduced winter snowfall and extreme summer heat accelerated glacier mass loss in the central Himalayas and Tian Shan….Prolonged heatwaves affected much of Asia, and marine heatwave coverage hit a record high…..Record-breaking floods in Central Asia – the worst in over 70 years – and extreme rainfall in the United Arab Emirates, where 259.5 mm fell in 24 hours, marked some of the most severe precipitation-related events since records began in 1949….Atmospheric concentrations of the three major greenhouse gases reached new record observed highs in 2023, the latest year for which consolidated global figures are available….The rate of ocean warming over the past two decades (2005–2024) was more than twice that observed over the period 1960–2005, and the ocean heat content in 2024 was the highest on record. Ocean warming and accelerated loss of ice mass from the ice sheets contributed to the rise of the global mean sea level by 4.7 mm per year between 2015 and 2024, reaching a new record observed high in 2024…” -excerpts from the first 5 pages
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A complex constitutional crisis is brewing in the United States. The U.S. Supreme Court has allowed the deportation of migrants to third countries, like South Sudan. The idea has already gone mainstream, though legal challenges will continue. Another Supreme Court decision in Trump’s favor has prevented injunctions by federal judges against applying nationwide—essentially limiting the power & range of the judiciary’s authority.
“Of course Taiwan is a country,” said its President, provoking a Chinese minister to respond verbally—though both sides are building up their hybrid war capabilities. Relations between Cambodia and Thailand continue worsening, and now Thailand has fully closed its land border to Cambodia, with few exceptions. Calls for Thailand’s PM to resign are also growing because she is perceived as too soft on Cambodia.
Assessments of the damage to Iran’s nuclear sites varies; some say the U.S. attacks have only set back Iran’s program by months; others say many years. Even Iran seems to say contradicting things. Despite almost-immediate ceasefire violations, it appears to be holding—for now. Some analysts fear that Iran will disrupt or interfere with maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz; this could increase oil drilling elsewhere in the world as other countries take advantage of higher prices. Flight maps are being reshaped by War. Hundreds of citizens, perhaps more, have been arrested in recent days over suspected links to foreign intelligence or other dissident elements of Iranian society.
International law is dying, they say; others contend it is already dead, a kind of zombie farce. In Gaza, several more shootings at aid distribution sites killed 46 and injured 150+ more. A bomb exploded on an armored IDF vehicle, killing seven IDF soldiers; various shootings & strikes reportedly killed 79 Palestinians on Wednesday, including 33 at an aid site. The encroaching famine, having resulted in the deaths of unknown numbers of Gazans, threatens to kill ever more. “It is weaponised hunger,” said one UN official, “It’s a death sentence.” An independent study estimated the number of Gazans who died “violent deaths” from October 2023 to January 2025, and concluded that the “real” number (75,200) was about 61% higher than the official number at the time (46,000). The study claims that 8,500+ others died from non-violent causes. On Friday, an IDF airstrike hit a market area where Hamas police forces were reportedly present, killing 18+. Spain’s PM has added his name to the list of world leaders accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza.
Monday airstrikes in Kyiv killed nine, wounding at least 33 others. Tuesday airstrikes across the Dnipropetrovsk oblast killed 17 and wounded 100+ others. Russian arsonists are alleged to have torched six military vehicles at a military base in Germany. Ukraine hit four strike airplanes deep inside Russia; Russia hit Samar, in southeast Ukraine, killing five and wounding 23+. On Saturday, a strike in Odesa killed two more, wounding 14. According to reports, some 110,000 Russian soldiers are massing for a decisive attempt to seize the logistically important city of Pokrovsk.
Finland is preparing for potential conflict with Russia, raising its army reserve age limit, stockpiling landmines, and closing many of its land borders. At a summit last week, NATO member states agreed to commit 5% of their GDP to defense by 2035—a huge increase from the 2% target pledged in 2014. No NATO state currently meets this threshold, and only Poland currently spends over 4% on defense. The increased defense spending is not particularly likely to reindustrialize NATO states and greatly reduce unemployment.
In a moment of good news, the DRC and Rwanda signed a peace agreement on Friday. Details are scarce, but observers believe it heralds a wide deescalation of fighting in the War torn region. Some experts believe the fighting may stop, but no withdrawal of troops will occur. The 2025 edition of the UK National Security Strategy was published last week, warning about transnational threats, new technology, “economic coercion,” energy & mineral competition, “engineering biology and AI” developments, and a range of new threats. “The UK is directly threatened by hostile activities including assassination, intimidation, espionage, sabotage, cyber attacks and other forms of democratic interference,” says the report, among other things. Meanwhile, in Serbia, an attempt of 6+ men to overthrow the government was foiled before they could start; they intended to assassinate politicians, storm government buildings, and take over a TV station.
In southern Sudan, 40+ people were killed in a hospital attack; both sides of the civil war blame each other and deny wrongdoing. In Mali and Burkina Faso, the Islamist terror group JNIM is making gains, and growing strong enough to handle conventional armies in the region. Protests across Kenya—organized to honor the one-year anniversary of a deadly protest—themselves turned deadly when police confronted protestors with tear gas and gunfire; at least 16 were slain, with 400+ injured. Much of East Africa appears to be backsliding into civic repression.
Georgia’s government imprisoned six opposition figures last week. In the Central African Republic, a stampede killed 29 children who took flight after hearing an explosion. In Syria, a suicide bombing at a church in Damascus killed 25, injuring 60+ others. In northern Mozambique, ISIS fighters are kidnapping children for labor, marriage, and the battlefield.
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Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:
-Arctic sea ice is shrinking, and this comment, which also links Denmark’s polar ice tracker platform. The comment author explains why our accelerating ice loss is particularly significant.
-A week of heat waves leaves its mark on the U.S. east coast. So many of the weekly observations—like this one, or this one, or this one, or this one of temperatures. The frequency & intensity of heatwaves is expected to increase.
Got any feedback, questions, comments, upvotes, heat wave survival tips, interviews, yoga advice, hate mail, locust recipes, etc.? Click here if you want to read the Reddit comments on this week’s edition. As always, thank you for your support. What did I miss this week?
Thanks for this, but we need to remind folks that each POUND of melting ice is absorbing 144 BTUs of heat energy, about half of which is generated from our burning of fossil fuels and the other half from trapped IR from solar radiation. C3S said that 2 yrs. ago we were losing 1,200,000,000,000 tons of global ice annually, so 100,000,000,000 tons monthly. Check the NOAA "surface analysis" to see the 57 degF land temp today in southern Greenland. That's resulting in 8,000,000,000 tons of melting ice HOURLY. Still wonder why the Atlantic is coolist just south of Greenland? Really?
Loss of data provided to NOAA by the Defense Dept. from three satellites that are crucial to hurricane forecasting.