Last Week in Collapse: March 17-23, 2024

Record broken, record broken, record broken…..Collapse is a broken record.

Last Week in Collapse: March 17-23, 2024

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, useful, soul-crushing, ironic, stunning, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 117th newsletter. You can find the March 10-16 edition here on Reddit if you missed it last week. Thank you for subscribing to the Substack!

Much of the Caribbean & Latin America experienced its hottest March night in history, with temperatures surpassing 27 °C (80 °F).....Some states also felt their hottest March days, with temperatures exceeding 40 °C (104 °F). Meanwhile, an assessment of 150 Indian reservoirs found them lacking—filled to 40% capacity, their lowest levels in 5+ years. Canada broke March records in some spots as well—and the Maldives. Canada also set a record for its warmest winter ever.

A number of Central Asian countries saw record temperatures, which reached 35 °C (95 °F) in some places. Even some locations in Saudi Arabia set new March records. The UN is warning that 2024 will be even hotter. Many Mediterranean countries are already facing serious Drought, but it’s incomparable with Afghanistan’s Drought. Rio de Janeiro hit its highest heat index in 10 years, at 62.3 °C (144 °F). The actual temperature was 42 °C (108 °F).

An independent climate committee in Scotland has admitted the predictable: their 2030 climate targets are impossible to meet, given how little progress they have made. A NASA study determined that the sea level rose .3 inches (.76 cm) in 2023, and El Niño is largely to blame. Around 40 miles (65 km) of creeks in Wyoming were designated unable to sustain life after oilfield discharges polluted them beyond their breaking points.

A study concluded that Antarctica’s isotherm is shifting south. In layman’s terms, this means that average temperatures closer to the South Pole are warming up—about 4x faster than most of the rest of the world. The decrease in snowfall is also impacting sea ice patterns. Atlantic sea surface temperatures continue breaking records.

An upcoming study to be published in Journal of Climate proposes a new term for quantifying extreme heat: “outdoor days.” If a day is too hot for comfort, it’s not an “outdoor day.” The researchers made a website for people to simulate their own temperature limits, and project future livability in their region. The study suggests that those living closer to the equator will unsurprisingly experience fewer outdoor days in the future, while people at greater latitudes will experience more overall outdoor days—although they will be scattered throughout the seasons.

This is a simulation of outdoor days in France, with a self-selected temperature range of 8-29 °C.

The Panama Canal—which received about 67% of its average annual rainfall last year—has come up with a temporary solution to its low-water-level-locks: reusing water from its locks. This, however, comes at the expense of local water needs, because the process is making the artificial Lake Gatún (Panama’s largest lake) saltier and saltier.

Extreme weather is impacting farmers in Malawi, who are unable to grow substantial harvests. In Louisiana, 90% of a town’s population left since a 2020 hurricane, leaving some 200 residents in scattered post-flood trailer settlements. On Java, 250,000+ were affected by a flood, with at least 5 killed.

Iceland’s long-erupting volcano is emitting a sulfur dioxide cloud that is slowly moving across northern Europe, threatening the ozone layer. The CEO of Saudi Aramco—one of the Top 4 most valuable companies worldwide—unsurprisingly called the green energy transition a “fantasy”. “In the real world, the current transition strategy is visibly failing on most fronts as it collides with five hard realities.…We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas and instead invest in them adequately reflecting realistic demand assumptions.”

A new study in Science Advances on tipping points in the AMOC suggests that its eventual Collapse will occur in three abrupt stages.

UNESCO released its 174-page World Water Development Report 2024—a 12-page executive summary is also available. The report states that all the sustainable development goals are being missed, urbanization, consumption patterns, & population growth are stressing water resources, and 25%+ of world rivers tested for pharmacological contaminants exceeded safe concentration levels. Interestingly, the report also claims “Water does not appear to have become a prevalent ‘trigger’ of conflict.” The full report is worth browsing.

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Plastics pollution is worsening with climate change. Manufacturing plastics creates emissions —> Emissions drive temperatures higher —> Higher temperatures degrade plastics faster —> Degraded plastics create need for new plastics (and microplastics) —> Manufacturing new plastics creates more emissions. The full study has more. Another study confirmed what we already know: the oceans are filling up with plastics of all shapes & sizes. A February 2024 Report on Plastic Recycling Fraud eviscerates the plastics industry for their historic complicity in planetary pollution.

“We are committed to the activities, but not committed to the results.”

Bird flu has been detected for the first time in American livestock (poultry are not considered livestock according to US regulations). A goat at a Minnesota farm tested positive for H5N1. Brazil is fighting dengue mosquitoes with special mosquitoes infected with a bacteria which will stop dengue fever.

The Federal Reserve has been given a supposedly difficult choice: permit a long-term economic decline—or, more likely cut interest rates later this year. US commercial real estate is sagging and unlikely to bounce back strong. Meanwhile, Germany’s economy is in recession, and it’s expected to stay there all year.

The mosquito-borne Bovine Ephemeral Fever (BEF) is killing unvaccinated cattle in New South Wales, and likely to spread more because of climate change. A heat wave canceled school and electricity across South Sudan. The head of the WHO wrote an op-ed on the interdependence of global health with our environment, urging awareness and global action.

“We are now re-learning what humans have always known, but which, since the industrial revolution, we have forgotten or ignored – that when we harm our environment, we harm ourselves….More heatwaves contribute to more cardiovascular disease; air pollution drives lung cancer, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease…Chemicals such as lead cause intellectual disability, cardiovascular and kidney disease….Illegal wildlife trading also increases the risk of zoonotic spillover that can trigger a pandemic….WHO estimates that pollution, waste and chemicals account for an estimated 14 million deaths a year…” -WHO Chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

A debt crisis grows for the Global South…and Pakistan finalizes its latest debt bailout from the IMF, $3B in total. A massive multi-billion-dollar debt restructuring is slowly moving forward to target the uncertain Chinese real estate sector. Recent US data on college loans suggest 2024 will be a banner year for young people going deep in university debt: a sum of some $100B USD for all students.

Streptococcal toxic shock syndrome is rising in Japan, with almost 400 cases nationwide in 2024. STSS has a CFR of about 30%, and is contagious through respiratory droplets and wounds. Meanwhile, someone on the bird flu subreddit reported a rumor that a Vietnamese university student was killed last week by H5N1.

Demographers predict a dropping world population within a couple decades. In a growing number of countries, the shrinking population pressures collide with economic and migration goals. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Texas can use broad arrest powers to hold suspected migrants, and the world’s copious elections this year are alleged to have led to surging “anti-migrant” rhetoric worldwide.

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Azerbaijan is demanding still more territory from Armenia, after winning two recent armed conflicts against the long-suffering, landlocked nation. Armenian officials believe another war is imminent, one which could see the invasion of land beyond the recently ceded Nagorno-Karabakh territory. Meanwhile, one of Libya’s governments closed a border crossing with Tunisia over gun violence in Wazin, Libya (pop: ~4,000?).

Another Darfur genocide is looming—or already happening. The latest Sudan War, almost one year old, is resulting in Arab militiamen terrorizing & killing the black Masalits. Over 5M Sudanese are on the brink of famine, according to the UN WFP. In the eastern DRC, an intergenerational conflict threatens to destabilize the greater region as M23 and other gangs recruit hopeless soldiers for their offensives. Starvation worsens in Yemen. Farmers protests in Europe—and India—continue.