Last Week in Collapse: March 2-8, 2025

The long twilight of the “rules-based order” is coming to an end. Plus, obesity, civil war, terrorism, and deforestation.

Last Week in Collapse: March 2-8, 2025

This is the 167th weekly newsletter. You can find the February 23-March 1, 2025 edition here if you missed it last week. Thank you for subscribing to the Substack.

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Meteorologists say that a “sudden, stratospheric warming event” is going to happen in the next week or so, which will lead to a Collapse of the polar vortex, unleashing cold weather across North America and parts of Eurasia. Meanwhile, February ended as the 3rd warmest on record—1.59 °C warmer than the baseline.

Experts say that Canada’s wildfire season is coming about one month earlier than usual, now starting in March. In other news, the world’s largest glacier, A23a, has run aground and spared the fragile South Georgia ecosystem from a deadly disruption. Meanwhile, parts of Jakarta saw meter-high flooding last week, and the Mauna Loa observatory recorded 430 ppm of CO2 for the first time.

A study from a few weeks ago predicts that more tropical storms will emerge from regions farther south in the North Atlantic than usual in the future. This stands in opposition to Pacific tropical storms, which tend to be born at increasingly northern locations. The future changes are linked to changing wind patterns and rising temperatures. Meanwhile, Cyclone Alfred battered eastern Australia, taking out power for over 100,000 homes.

“The fossil fuel industry is running perhaps the biggest campaign of disinformation and political interference in American history.” Thus spoke one U.S. Senator. It is not just the United States; Libya is planning to auction access to explore for its oil soon, and Nigerian oil earnings are expected by some to double by the end of this year, when compared to 2024 figures. Meanwhile, one of Nigeria’s tribal kings is taking Shell to court over oil spills & pollution.

A study in Environmental Research Letters indicates that the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is weakening as sea ice melts and changes the composition of the Southern Ocean. The scientists predict, “by 2050, the strength of the ACC declines by ∼20% for a high-emissions scenario.”

New March heat records in Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay. A mass salmon dieoff (over 1M dead) occurred at Tasmanian fish farms as a result of bacteria. Flash flooding in the Canary Islands. A long read on a toxic (and burning) waste dump on the outskirts of London is alarming nearby residents.

President Trump signed an executive order “to facilitate increased timber production….to suspend, revise, or rescind all existing regulations, orders, guidance documents, policies, settlements, consent orders, and other agency actions that impose an undue burden on timber production…” In other words, the government is selling massive tracts of federal forests to logging companies. Experts say this will increase the risk of wildfires.

A paywalled study says, perhaps counterintuitively, that methane (CH4) emissions help the ozone (O3) layer recover, particularly in the Arctic. Another study from last week found that canals and ditches “emit notable amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O).” These constructions are often “omitted from global budgets of inland water emissions.”

The Collapse of banana production is coming. A Nature Food study claims that, by 2080, “Rising temperatures, coupled with requirements for labour and export infrastructure, will result in a 60% reduction in the area suitable for export banana production, along with yield declines in most current banana producing areas.” By then we’ll have bigger worries.

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Some people have been suffering from Long COVID/PASC for 5+ years now. Another study on Long COVID blames lung inflammation for a variety of symptoms. At least 5% of the U.S. population currently suffers from Long COVID. There are a number of symptoms, including “chronic fatigue or post-exertional malaise” and “dysautonomia symptoms” linked to problems with the circulatory & nervous systems. A recent NZ government publication on the illness says that Long COVID sufferers encounter “a substantially increased risk of sudden death, and silent cell and organ damage.” Yet scientists say one possible cure, sodium 4-phenylbutyrate (4-PBA), may reduce lung scarring and effectively treat some people. Meanwhile, London doctors have reportedly developed a surgical treatment for some Long COVID symptoms that involves widening the nasal cavities to improve patients’ sense of smell and taste.

The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, and the feeling is mutual. 25% tariffs on Canadian & Mexican goods, and 20% on Chinese products—although the list of Canadian & Mexican products has already been reduced. Canada is allegedly planning more tariffs in a few weeks. Some observers fear that Canada may cut its electricity provided to the U.S.

The Atlanta Fed is predicting an economic contraction of 1.5% for Q1, just one week after telegraphic confidence in a 2.3% growth rate for Q1. Looks like recession’s back on the menu, boys.

Some scientists say that over half the global adult population is expected to be obese by 2050, and about one third of children and young adults. The full, 26-page Lancet study has more.

The 275-page World Obesity Atlas 2025 was also published last week, and it too predicts a near-term when obesity rates have expanded to concerning levels. It predicts that about half of African women will be obese by 2030. The report also contains individual country analyses for every nation on earth.

Following large cuts in WFP food aid (the US funded more than half the programme until recently), thousands of mostly South Sudanese refugees clashed with police at a refugee camp in Kenya. This TikTok account is sharing videos of some of the incidents and their aftermath if you want to peek into life in the refugee camp.

A second person, an adult, has died in the American measles outbreak, now present in 12 states, which has also grown 35% in just the last week. In the DRC, a more contagious but less deadly variant of mpox has been confirmed—and already detected in the UK. Meanwhile, current cases of cholera in the UK & Germany have been traced from Ethiopia.