Last Week in Collapse: November 19-25, 2023

Earth’s largest iceberg has broken off into the ocean.

Last Week in Collapse: November 19-25, 2023

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter bringing together some of the most important, timely, useful, soul-crushing, ironic, astounding, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the landmark 100th newsletter! Thank you all for reading this weekly global Doom report. To celebrate the 100th edition, all existing Substack subscribers have been gifted a one-month full subscription to Last Week in Collapse, and this week has been posted without a paywall. You can find the November 12-18, 2023 edition here if you missed it last week. You can also receive these posts (with images) every Sunday by email with the Substack version. Hopefully I will have the time to write some special end-of-year posts coming next month…

The UN’s 108-page Emissions Gap Report for 2023 was released on Monday, showing again that worldwide emissions continue to rise, despite international agreements and the rise of renewable energy. We’ve heard this all before; that’s why this Report was given the double entendre subtitle: Broken Record. Limiting temperature rise to 1.5 °C was but a distant memory, and preventing 2 °C appears to be a fantasy. The UN is now warning of a future with 3 °C warming.

Canada has the greatest “implementation gap” between what it says on climate, and how it acts. CO2 Readings at Mauna Loa ahead of COPE28 are over 422 ppm.

Looks like COVID only slowed GHG emissions by 1-2%.

“This year, until the beginning of October, 86 days were recorded with temperatures over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. September was the hottest recorded month, with global average temperatures 1.8 °C above pre-industrial levels. Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased by 1.2 percent from 2021 to 2022 to reach a new record of 57.4 Gigatonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (GtCO2e)....these findings underline that immediate and unprecedented mitigation action in this decade is essential….all countries must accelerate economy-wide, lowcarbon transformations….Energy consumption and production account for 86% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, comprising 37% from coal, 29% from oil and 20% from gas…”

Over 1M gallons of oil spilled in the Gulf of Mexico, and authorities won’t say exactly when the pipeline leak began. It’s still far away from the Deepwater Horizon spill, in which 134M gallons of oil spilt into the Gulf, ranking as the 5th largest oil spill of all time.

“A23a” is the name given to the largest iceberg, just larger than Mallorca or Socotra. It’s broken off from where it ran aground some 37 years ago, and is heading for the Southern Ocean. Some ecologists are worried about this iceberg potentially destroying wildlife around South Georgia Island. Meanwhile, Peru’s glaciers recede.

A report from The Guardian indicates that the 12 richest billionaires generate, annually, the amount of emissions produced by 2M+ American households. Three men in particular—Carlos Slim, Bill Gates, and Jeff Bezos—account for more than 95% of the emissions credited to these 12 billionaires. You can read the 136-page Oxfam report here. The report also claims that the world’s richest 1% (77M people) produce the same amount of carbon emissions as the bottom 66% (5.1B people).

“Super pigs” have been breeding in Canada, and are posing a threat—ecologically and violently—as they threaten to migrate south into the United States. There have been tens of thousands of sightings near the border; elsewhere in the U.S. wild boars persist as a troublesome invasive species. Northwest U.S. has also seen a mysterious respiratory disease affecting dogs—the Reddit comments on the article may be useful.

The October heat wave in Madagascar is being linked directly to climate change. To make matters worse, the rainy season never came, and their President “won” reelection last week amid election boycotts and allegations of illegitimacy.

A London court has ruled that Nigerian villagers can take Shell Oil to court over oil spilt about 8 years ago. The EU voted to ban microplastics, and companies are wasting no time adapting. Brazil hit its all-time highest temperature (not heat index): 44.8 °C (113 °F). The number of people displaced by Somalia flooding is almost 700,000 this season.

A “recalibration” of the model for Limits to Growth was published earlier this month. The dataset and predictions here are updated from the updated recalibration from 2005. According to the new model, humankind should reach peak industrial output and peak food production within 18 months, and then reach peak population around 2026.

Record November heat for Saudi Arabia. Greater pollution in the Russian Arctic. In the Russian East, bears are struggling to start hibernating because the temperatures are too high. And an all-time record low temperature for a city in northeast China, -40.2 °C (-40.3 °F).

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The WHO is concerned about anti-microbial resistance (AMR). This is the increasing resilience of fungi, viruses, bacteria, and other parasites as they adapt to survive their traditional killers. Antibiotic resistance (the superbug) is one element of AMR, and it’s already having an impact in Africa and beyond. Apparently this week was World Antimicrobial Awareness Week, and scientists are relying on AI to speedily identify AMR in test samples. The misuse of antibiotics in many parts of the world has sentenced humanity to this grim future.

The tiger mosquito has become much more prevalent in Europe over the last decade, and last year heat waves in Europe killed 61,000+ people. Most EU countries want the EU to do more to prevent the spread of climate-amplified diseases, and to insulate from the worst effects of climate change. Meanwhile, the EU Parliament decisively voted down a proposal to cut the use of pesticides in half by 2030, despite evidence that pesticides are partially responsible for the modern man’s declined sperm count. In the U.S., baby food has been found to contain pesticides.

Despite widespread knowledge of meat’s damage to the ecosystem, people are not willing to give up meat. Nanoplastics are being blamed for increasing likelihood of getting Parkinson’s. Economists are worried that their economic models will be made extinct by climate change.

It is now almost impossible to find data on current COVID cases & deaths. I tracked down this OECD data chart, which appears to be to report that 519 people died in the U.S. from COVID in the first week of November. In the UK, 373. Most other countries have stopped sharing—or recording—data. Despite a recent rise in respiratory illnesses in China, the country denied noticing any new variants of concern. Most of the world is entering its first full winter without any real data on the pandemic. Can you find your country’s real vaccination rate, or a realistic death toll? (If you live in the United States, you can get 4 free COVID tests from the USPS again.)

Basically no data anymore—and winter is coming.

As the global economy slows, some corporations are turning to a time-tested source of wealth: fossil fuels, these ones lying under the Arctic sea. Exxon mobil calls it “the most promising and least explored regions for oil.” Some analysts believe there may be as much as 90 billion barrels of oil to be shared among a small number of rich northern nations—perhaps worth more than $7 trillion USD.

Thousands of rats—some living, some dead—have washed ashore in northern Australia. “Mate, there’s rats everywhere,” said one resident. The rats had a bountiful mating season and exploded in population.

Cuba has been foreshadowing our coming energy crisis, with a year of devastating economic damage blamed principally on its lasting fuel crisis. Food production is down over 50% since 2018, along with transportation and pharmaceutical output. Local trade is down, and supply shortages are hitting certain places hard.

The global economy is growing very slowly, while inflationary pressure continues eating away the life savings of less stable currencies. Polish truckers blocked 3 border crossings with Ukraine over disagreement on LPG prices. A budgetary shock has cooled Germany’s future spending.

The world’s largest biomass energy company, Enviva, appears to be collapsing. This follows revelations by a whistleblower late last year who claimed its green credentials were kinda bullshit—and from the fact that the price of wood outstripped the price of energy and made the enterprise unprofitable. “It’s all coming home to roost in a kind of cumulative way,” said one ex-manager.

50+ Ethiopians starved to death, according to local officials. The northern regions have seen the so-called rainy season fail to materialize for five years. Meanwhile, a peninsula in Scotland could be made an island sooner than expected, if storms and flooding continue. In Pakistan, one year after devastating flooding, child malnutrition spiked considerably.

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Fighting in Myanmar is the worst since the February 2021 coup. After a coalition of ethnic groups launched surprise attacks 3 weeks ago and secured several victories, other anti-government insurgents (with a wide range of political beliefs) escalated hostilities. Since late October, at least 70 people have been killed, plus 200,000+ displaced, mostly from cities. Other estimates guess about 90,000 displaced.

Canada has silently become a battleground for hundreds of agents of the Iranian regime, according to one report. Many are engaged in intimidation, while others practice ordinary embezzlement & corruption. Several weeks after India allegedly directed an assassination on Canadian soil, last week the U.S. announced a foiled plot by an Indian agent to assassinate a Sikh separatist on American soil, amid growing tensions in Indian society. Colombia’s low-intensity insurgency is still ongoing 70+ years later, with local warlord-businessmen assuming power in remote regions following FARC’s 2017 disarmament.

A car explosion at the U.S.-Canada border had people worrying about terrorism, but it appears now that it was unrelated. Traffic deaths are up 30% in Ireland so far this year.

The conservatives won in Argentina and Netherlands, and the new President-elect of Argentina asserted sovereignty over the Falkland Islands (population: ~3,660), a small set of islands long governed as a British territory. Australia and the Philippines are conducting joint patrols in the South China Sea to deter Chinese interference; two weeks ago China blasted some Australian Navy divers with a dangerous sonar pulse as they cleaned their propellors. A tunnel collapse in India trapped 41 workers.

A stabbing in Dublin, amplified by some on the far-right over claims that the stabber was Algerian-Irish, resulted in a 500+ person riot in which fireworks were launched at police, over a dozen burnt, and dozens arrested. Over 400 police were deployed to the scene, which is forcing a police rethink of internal threats. In Greece, migrants are being scapegoated for wildfires.

North Korea launched its first spy satellite successfully into orbit last week. Some fear its information potential while others doubt its utility. It could still trigger Kessler Syndrome as a black swan event…

Some Houthi rebels have said that they will continue launching missiles until Israel is destroyed, after seizing a cargo ship and rerouting it to their port at Hodeida. They also warned of War expansion beyond Gaza if the conflict is not soon resolved. The United States also air-struck Iran-backed militias in Iraq twice last week.

In addition to the destruction wrought unto the infrastructure of still-besieged Gaza, the recent eruption of violence has made this War the deadliest conflict for journalists on record. 48 journalists have died covering the conflict since Hamas’ October 7 massacre. While attention is fixated on Gaza, {counter}operations are expanding in the West Bank. Many of the recently summoned IDF reservists are themselves illegal settlers. An uncertain 4-day ceasefire was agreed on Friday, ahead of about 50 of Hamas’ hostages being exchanged for roughly 150 Palestinian prisoners. Operations will continue for at least a few more months, and the hoped-for olive (oil) harvest in Gaza (Palestine was the world’s 21st largest producer) is not happening. This War is also costing Israel over $1B every four days. For many casual observers, the War has already become background noise.

Germany pledged another €1.3B for Ukraine ahead of the long winter. U.S. intelligence warned that the Wagner Group may be planning to give air defence systems to Iran and Iran-backed Hezbollah, which is still engaging with Israeli forces in southern Lebanon. We may be witnessing the beginning of the convergence of these two Wars. 2024 is being increasingly set up geopolitically like a Year Where Things Happen™.

Russian confidence in their military has allegedly dropped, but only from 80% to 75%. Amid a matériel shortage, Russians are modifying 1950s tractors with old guns to wage war. Following a deadly strike at a Ukrainian awards ceremony 3 weeks ago, Ukraine struck a Russian awards ceremony, reportedly killing 25+ Russian soldiers and injuring about 100. Despite small Ukrainian victories around Kherson and at Avdiivka, the war is stalling—and a growing number of people think both sides are planning for stalemate, a settlement that would effectively benefit Russia.

Some defense guys think Russia will be ready to fight NATO the West™ within 10 years; others know that the fighting never really stopped, it was merely transformed. Russia launched its largest drone assault on Kyiv since the full-scale invasion began—but the 6-hour drone attack did not kill anyone, although it injured 5 and damaged some buildings. Russia is continuing its human wave assault at Avdiivka, a doomed attack for a doomed ruin.

Darfur continues to unravel while brutal fighting—ethnic cleansing and indiscriminate atrocities—has become more widespread. Hundreds of thousands of refugees flowed into Chad, sharpening the already acute food crisis. Decisive victory seems impossible, so while the parties rage, the state is falling apart.

”...[over the last 7 months] almost 5 million people have been internally displaced, and a further 1.3 million have crossed borders seeking safety, putting immense pressure on host communities. In addition, 20 million people are facing hunger, with over six million just one step away from famine. Cholera outbreaks have been declared in around the country, including in states hosting significant numbers of people displaced by the conflict. It is estimated that 3.1 million people are at risk of contracting the acute watery diarrhoea and cholera by December. Malaria cases have surpassed 800,000.” -Disease, Displacement, and Hunger Escalating in Sudan, UNDP

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Things to watch for next week include:

↠ COPout28 begins next week, and the forecast is dire. Activists are worried about being arrested. Governments are pushing firmer targets with softer enforcement. Many are concerned that an oil boss is hosting the conference, or have other issues with the whole affair.

Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:

-The U.S.A. is continuing its sad decline, based on this weekly observation from the grocery stores and streets to psychotic acts of violence and the ever-dropping standards of health. The utter Collapse of the standard of living, and the normalization of rot. On the other hand, zero people were killed in Black Friday shopping attacks this year, for the second consecutive year.

-Some say the world will end in fire, some say in ice, this poorly-titled thread explores the age-old tension between immigration, rising populations, and long-term climate success. The interdisciplinary “ecofascist” issue that can never be resolved; someone posted a related Isaac Asimov video in the subreddit.

-Alternating drought and flooding is taking its toll on Australia’s environment, judging from this ordinary observation in the southeast mountains. What’s going to happen after all the birds die?

-The machine cannot stop, and it will run you over if you get in its way, says this provocative comment on how the “Republican” me-first mentality has conquered the masses, and why it will not be unseated. I am not fully convinced, but it is worth reflecting on.

Got any feedback, upvotes, questions, comments, complaints, land deals, political advice, soylent green recipes, death threats, etc.? Click here if you want to read the Reddit comments on this week. What did I forget this time?