Last Week in Collapse: October 20-26, 2024

Storms, emissions, shaping operations, and growing involvement in the Ukrainian battlefield. The long twilight of civilization is nearing its end.

Last Week in Collapse: October 20-26, 2024

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, useful, soul-shattering, ironic, stunning, exhausting, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 148th newsletter. You can find the October 13-19 edition here on Reddit if you missed it last week. Thank you for subscribing to the Substack.

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Tropical Storm Trami rolled through the Philippines, displacing 300,000+ and killing at least 100 people. Hurricane Oscar struck Cuba on Sunday, killing six. Floods and Droughts are devastating farms in Chad.

Colombia began COP16, the global biodiversity conference, on Monday; it will run through 1 November and accomplish nothing. Over 80% of participating countries failed to submit action plans that they promised to send, back in 2022, to address the rapid sacrifice of our ecosystems. Complicating matters are the threats from a rogue Colombian warlord, once a violent protector of the forest, to disrupt the proceedings by force of arms.

The growth rate of wildfires in the American West has more-than-doubled since 2004—and there are more wildfires today. Quebec hit new daily temperature records, while a number of places saw new October heat figures. More daily surface temperatures were recorded on Earth on 23 October.

A 49-page report on oceanic biodiversity examines a pledge by a number of countries to preserve 30% of the world’s lands & oceans by the year 2030—the so-called “30x30” plan. Indeed, some data indicate that protected natural areas are being damaged more than unprotected zones.

“In short, we are failing to meet the 30x30 target….At the current rate of progress — an increase of 0.5% since the adoption of the GBF in 2022 — this figure is projected to rise to just 9.7% by 2030….so far only about 1.4% of the high seas is under some form of protection — and considering effective protection, this drops to less than 1%....only 2.8% of global marine areas are effectively protected….Only 14 countries have reported more than 30% of their waters as protected areas….” -excerpts from the report

A study in PNAS estimates that methane emissions from fossil fuels (30% of annual CH4 emissions) are less than CH4 “emissions from microbial sources such as wetlands, waste, and agriculture.” Particularly in the last 4 years, the methane emissions from microbial sources have spiked. “Approximately 85% of CH4 growth during 2007–2020 was due to increased microbial emissions.” Meanwhile, CO2 emissions from forest fires have risen 60% since 2021… Some people argue that we need to let go of false hopes before humanity can address the climate crisis as a group.

“Nothing dramatic happens at the tipping point” for the Collapse of AMOC. Some say it may have already happened. A short open letter by climate scientists was sent to the Nordic Council last weekend warning about the consequences of changing ocean currents.

“...it is urgent to draw the attention of the Nordic Council of Ministers to the serious risk of a major ocean circulation change in the Atlantic. A string of scientific studies in the past few years suggests that this risk has so far been greatly underestimated….the Arctic region is a "ground zero" for tipping point risks and climate regulation across the planet….Tipping point risks are real and can occur within the 1.5-2°C climate range of the Paris Agreement. The world is currently heading well beyond this range (> 2.5°C)....research since the last IPCC report does suggest that the IPCC has underestimated this risk and that the passing of this tipping point is a serious possibility already in the next few decades….The impacts particularly on Nordic Countries would likely be catastrophic, including major cooling in the region while surrounding regions warm….Many further impacts are likely to be felt globally, including a shift in tropical rainfall belts, reduced oceanic carbon dioxide uptake (and thus faster atmospheric increase) as well as major additional sea-level rise particularly along the American Atlantic coast, and an upheaval of marine ecosystems and fisheries….”

A study in Nature Geoscience found that the “ocean skin” (the top 2 mm of surface water) absorbs CO2 and also releases some of its warmth into the atmosphere. Greece’s chestnut harvest is expected to drop by about 50% this year, because of Drought. And farmers in Pennsylvania and elsewhere are concerned about how warming temperatures will reduce their potato harvests—and about how Drought is impacting orchard harvests.

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Cuba is facing a worsening economic & electrical situation; power has been restored to some parts of the island for up to 4 hours per day. In Eucador, low water levels have resulted in 14-hour blackouts every day. An investigation into seven water companies in the UK found that they falsified some of their pollution tests from 2021-2023. In Mexico, water availability decreases.

Over 2% of Londoners are experiencing homelessness—London’s highest level on record. Homelessness is also surging in Canada’s capital, Ottawa. In Poland, young people are becoming more addicted to nicotine and vaping. Meanwhile, U.S. federal court found several large social media companies potentially liable for causing addiction and damage to the mental health of their users.

Urbanization and pollution is being blamed for millions of undiagnosed asthma cases across Africa. Wildfires, caused by climate change, are reportedly responsible for the deaths of some 12,000 annually. Another 87,000 were said to have been caused by other “fine particulate matter.” A Pakistani megacity banned children’s outdoor exercise until at least January to prevent children from inhaling the megacity’s smog.

A paywalled study in JAMA Pediatrics found that infant mortality rates in the U.S. rose 7% in the 18 months following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, following the near-total prohibition of abortion in a number of states.

Bird flu has been confirmed in two more humans, this time in Washington state, with two more presumed to have the virus. Some officials are worried about potentially undercounting H5N1 cases, since various incentives for farm workers encourage them not to get tested.

Ukraine reported 84 West Nile virus infections, including 11 fatalities, since July 2024. In Florida, flesh-eating bacteria, more common after hurricanes, have killed 13 people so far this year. Dozens of cases of cholera were reported in Accra, Ghana, killing two.