Last Year in Collapse: War, 2023

The most peaceful year for the rest of our lives is ending. What comes next?

Last Year in Collapse: War, 2023

This is a special edition of Last Week in Collapse, ordinarily a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, helpful, depressing, ironic, stunning, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse. (The next weekly edition will drop tomorrow, and cover 8 days instead of 7.)

Today’s edition is a retrospective on Conflict and War in 2023. Consider this your Content Warning. Thank you for subscribing to the Substack.

This year was the most violent since WWII.

North Korea tested its fastest missiles in 2023, escalating regional fears. Japan wants to rebuild its military to meet modern threats. The International Atomic Energy Agency says that North Korea may now have the potential to generate nuclear weapons-grade material. Iran, which finally quashed the last of the Mahsa Amini protests, is also edging closer to achieving 90% enriched uranium, the threshold at which Iran could craft a nuclear bomb.

China’s President continues to assert that China will take Taiwan, one way or another. China-Philippines tensions also grew amid China’s insistence over its claims in the South China Seas. China and India are still militarizing their border.

Fears are growing of deepfakes disrupting society and elections in 2024. And, although many powerful countries have warned about the “catastrophic” risk that AI poses to humanity, all of them are rushing headlong towards its revolutionary promise—along with the private sector. In January, we saw in Brazil the results of fanatical Bolsonaro supporters attempting a desperate coup. France experienced a year of tension and stress.

Journalist killings in Mexico continued. Mass killings made security the #1 issue for Mexican voters. El Salvador opened a colossal prison and began stuffing it with suspected gangsters. Hate speech on social media increased across a wide range of platforms. Economic & class warfare has targeted the poor, and increasingly weaponized debt to control people. Neomedievalism lies ahead.

Anti-government protests raged in Peru for months, over the arranged ousting of the previous Presidente, and to push for new elections. A month of curfew came to Sierra Leone after a failed coup alarmed governmental leaders. Fighting flared up across most of Myanmar, part of a synchronized counteroffensive by several guerrilla groups; over 500,000 displaced. Syria’s President was welcomed back into the Arab League after over a decade of ostracization; refugees continue fleeing.

Tunisia continues democratic backsliding, and began a wide struggle against migrants coming from sub-Saharan Africa. The dramatic outflow of migrants and asylum-seekers from North Africa overwhelmed Lampedusa and other parts of the Mediterranean. It was a record year for migration to Europe, and for deaths along the way. Large numbers of small boats coming to the UK are straining British politics; I believe this will eventually result in the UK exiting the European Convention on Human Rights. Colossal numbers of migrants/refugees crossed the U.S./Mexico border daily, and moving them around the U.S. has become impractical and inflammatory.

Tensions grew in India after Kashmir was stripped of its autonomous status. Ethnic violence in Manipur killed at least 160 people, not to mention the rapes, terrorism, and 70,000+ displaced. Religious divisions keep growing in India and Nepal…

Suicide bombings and other attacks in Pakistan spiked this year. Despite political posturing, skirmishes and devastating floods, Libya’s internal conflict remained at political/military deadlock for another year. Iran has been stepping up its rhetoric against Afghanistan over water rights in the Helmand River. The United States saw its second-worst year for mass shootings—649 as of Christmas, resulting in 709 deaths. And American protection is getting increasingly privatized.

American political tensions kept getting worse. Biden’s approval rating dropped to 37%, only 3% higher than Trump’s lowest ranking as President. Trump ranted on Christmas about his indictments, which threaten legal and financial trouble even as he is the clear frontrunner for the Republicans, using questionable rhetoric during his campaign speeches. Large numbers of Americans want someone else to be the next President—but none of the other contenders seem to win the electorate’s hearts like Trump and Biden.

A number of elections took place this year. If Clausewitz’ maxim that “war is merely the continuation of politics by other means” is true, then its reverse is also true. Nigeria’s February election was contested as illegitimate. China’s President secured a third term after term limits were removed. Türkiye’s authoritarian President won a close reelection in May, and a young political party in Thailand won a shock triumph. A controversial constitutional referendum was roundly defeated in Australia—but not before polarizing society for months. An Argentinian libertarian won a surprise victory, and is proceeding to dismantle much of the government.

A number of European conservative coalitions won narrow victories across Europe, although liberals won in Poland, reversing years of nationalist governing. An incredibly close election in Liberia resulted in the President losing by about 1%—and then he conceded peacefully. New Zealand shifted right after elections. Venezuela “voted” to claim 70% of Guyana’s land. Iraqi elections were marked by fears of violence. Egypt’s reigning strongman won another term as President in an “election.” Next year we can look forward to at least three potentially vicious election campaigns: Tories are expected to lose hugely in the UK, European conservatives will probably make gains in the EU’s Parliamentary elections in May, and the American election campaign, climaxing on November 5th, may shatter what’s left of society. Recent movies about Collapse & Civil War in the U.S. probably aren’t helping to lower the temperature. This year the Doomsday Clock ticked forward 10 seconds, leaving us 90 seconds away from Midnight.

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Ukraine endured another year of blistering War against Russia. There were too many tragedies to keep track of: the months-long devastation of Bakhmut, the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in June, the ongoing assaults in Avdiivka, a counteroffensive that failed to live up to the hype, and much else. People across the world have become numb to the airstrikes and the trauma. The failed coup attempt by Wagner Group’s leader, followed by Progozhin’s quasi-surrender and subsequent assassination in August, reinforced the notion that Putin faces no more credible challengers. Yet, for a brief moment in June, Putin’s overthrow seemed possible…

For Ukraine, 2023 was the Year of the Tank. Germany sent Leopard 2s, the U.S. sent M1 Abrams, the UK sent Challenger 2s, while Poland, Denmark and France sent other models. The deployment of U.S. Patriot missile defense systems, alongside other nations’ donations, transformed Kyiv into one of the safest places in Ukraine. Yet some said, and still say, that Ukraine would fall within days if Western support stopped coming. The Black Sea Grain Initiative lapsed and will not be renewed soon; Russia stole millions of tons of wheat in occupied Ukraine this year. And just this week, Russia launched the largest air attack since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Russia felt severe losses too, including Black Sea vessels. Although their civilian population was basically untouched by the War, high estimates say roughly 350,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. At least one third of those casualties are deaths. Despite high losses, Russia is continuing its grueling War of attrition with waves of conscripts that underscore the low value of human lives in War. By comparison, Ukraine reportedly suffered more than 70,000 killed soldiers since February 2022, with another 120,000+ wounded, as of August. Fears are growing that Ukraine won’t be able to replace the soldiers lost in battle, and the military is casting its conscription net wider and wider…

Rumors of North Korean troops and workers in the battlefields of Ukraine never materialized—but their ammunition did, even if some of it is backfiring and damaging Russian soldiers and machinery. The subreddits r/UkraineWarVideoReport and r/CombatFootage contain combat videos if you are interested in seeing the unvarnished brutality of War. The development of drone-warfare is also transforming the frontlines and our understanding of modern warfare. Ukrainian steel production dropped at least 75% since the War began. Finland joined NATO, but Türkiye is still delaying Sweden’s accession. Billions of dollars have been committed to sustaining Ukraine’s military and society. And soon we will see the damage and demoralization that a second winter in war will cause.

Another year of War, and very little territorial gains to show for it…

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Haiti was already spiraling when its President was assassinated in July 2021. The remaining senators fled in January 2023, leaving just an embattled Prime Minister and several thousand soldiers and police. They have failed to assert control, resulting in a power vacuum in which some 200 gangs battle for food, medicine, women, and authority. Perhaps as many as 200,000 people have been displaced, several thousand killed, and over three million in Port-Au-Prince effectively held hostage by random violence without end. While many countries have understandably tried to steer clear of this human rights black hole, Kenya is planning on leading a coalition to restore law & order to the failed state sometime next year. Time will tell if intervention can reverse Haiti’s Collapse.

The fragile eastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is pushing out UN peacekeepers after a long failure to take on the M23 gang terrorizing settlements around Goma. Some 7M people are displaced across the DRC. The East African Community (EAC) has sent a few thousand soldiers to manage the situation but a solution has not been found. Some individuals have equipped themselves with small arms and blurred the line between civilian and fighter. Sexual violence is commonplace.

In the Sahel, Islamist violence, coups, and foreign intervention characterized 2023. Gabon suffered a coup in August, while Niger had a coup in July, forcing French troops out afterwards. The Wagner Group moved into Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, solidifying its influence by assisting armed forces in their heavy-handed counterinsurgency efforts. ECOWAS threats to restore Niger’s pre-coup leader have so far turned out to be just talk. Water crises are ongoing, and extremism is growing unchecked.

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Sudan Collapsed into Civil War in April, and the conflict will fester for a long time to come. Deaths in Sudan in October were estimated at around 9,000. Over 7M people have been displaced, most of them internally.

Now the insurgent RSF forces pillage and terrorize as they move south to another theater of operations. Rape has been used as a weapon of War. Civilian reprisals are commonplace. Other people are arming themselves in self-defense, preparing in panic for what is to come.

Some say there is now a separate non-international armed conflict raging in Darfur, where genocide has returned. Famine is coming to the region, threatening millions of lives caught in the middle. If either side is fighting for legitimacy among the people, it is unsuccessful. Atrocities abound on both sides, and are unlikely to cease. The few humanitarian agencies left are pulling out due to security concerns.

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A prospective normalization of ties between Israel and several Gulf countries was shattered by the surprise Hamas attack in October 7. The slaughter of roughly 1,200 Israelis, and the abduction of several hundred into Gaza, triggered an open confrontation that has led to the complete Collapse of Gaza, and deepening societal divisions across much of the world. Israel has strictly limited relief of food and medicine into Gaza, inflicting severe living conditions in an area that is still among the most densely populated on earth.

Inside Gaza, about 2M Palestinians have been displaced, over 95% of its population. 20,000+ have been killed so far, about 1% of Gaza’s population. Untold numbers are wounded, or have lost everything they own. Most hospitals are unoperational, most schools have been damaged or destroyed, and the majority of housing units have been damaged. The 12 weeks of bombings have reduced Gaza to rubble. Some call it genocide. Others call the operations “military necessity” in the face of Hamas using civilians and their buildings as shields. The proposed flooding of underground tunnels with seawater could devastate what’s left of Gaza’s ecosystem, poisoning its water sources and leaving lasting, serious harm to the environment. Lasting ceasefires do not appear forthcoming. The two-state solution appears dead.

Unlike many other conflicts, this one has a second large theater of operations: the rest of the world. Outside Gaza, antisemitic mobs searched for Jews, while Islamophobic attacks targeted Palestinians far away from Gaza. Billions of online arguments damage friendships, university reputations, private companies, and race relations. Some worry that events in Gaza may help reelect Trump. Cargo ships in the Red Sea have been interrupted, amplifying supply shortages and global economics.

Escalation of violence worldwide and the convergence of many interrelated factors have forced politicians to confront the possibility of World War III. Some believe it is already here, albeit in a less recognizable form. Others believe WWIII will emerge from the gray zone like Chinese hybrid warfare, or come from India-Pakistan. Several nations, particularly China, increased their nuclear stockpiles this year…a trend unlikely to stop in 2024.

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